So far the 2015 NFL season has been… well… it’s been something. A lot of injuries, a lot of inconsistent performances, a team that came two games away from a perfect regular season, a dance that has been beaten to death, an HGH allegation, and here we are. Playoffs.
No more Thursday Night Football-type games, the contenders have separated themselves from the pretenders, and the field has been narrowed down from 32 teams to 12. First up, wild-card weekend.
My biggest piece of advice to the eight teams in action this weekend: Never say “we want the ball, we’re gonna score.” Never. Ever.
Kansas City Chiefs (5) (11-5) vs. Houston Texans (4) (9-7)
First off, it’s a rematch of a Week 1 tilt that saw Kansas City hold on for dear life to win 27-20. This game is gonna be sacks on sacks on sacks. If you like Defence, the first game of wild-card weekend is for you.
Kansas City Chiefs
Offence: Total (27th) Passing (30th) Rushing (6th)
Defence: Total (7th) Passing (9th) Rushing (8th)
In one corner, we have the game manager himself, Alex Smith. The Kansas City quarterback took a lot of flack early on this season (and has much of his career) for checking down in 3rd down situations when his teams need to get downfield. Luckily for Smith, this season he has a legitimate wide receiver in Jeremy Maclin. According to Pro Football Focus, Maclin had the best hands in the NFL this season, dropping just one pass on 120 targets.
Outside of Maclin though, that Kansas City receiving group is pretty bleak. Texans corner Jonathan Joseph will be assigned to Maclin, and should he shut out the Chiefs leading receiver, Kansas City better hope to get secondary production from guys like Travis Kelce and…Albert Wilson.
Smith’s been decent, but the real reason the Chiefs are here is their defence. Marcus Peters has very much inserted himself into the Defensive Rookie of the Year race, notching 8 interceptions this season. Eric Berry has fully recovered from being diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma and earned himself a spot on the pro bowl roster for his play.
For all the talk that the Texans defensive line may get, the Chiefs is just as dynamic. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are a linebacker tandem that has haunted the dreams of quarterbacks for years now. However they’re a little bit banged up. Houston hasn’t played since week 12 when he suffered a hyperextended knee and Hali also missed practice time this week to knee and thumb injuries. Their absence has been noticeable, as the Chiefs have been scraping by against inferior teams like San Diego and Cleveland recently. Will Hali and Houston show up in Houston? That’s one of the biggest question marks heading into the wild-card matchup. Talking about Houston, in Houston, is also going to get incredibly confusing.
Houston Texans
Offence: Total (19th) Passing (18th) Rushing (15th)
Defence: Total (3rd) Passing (3rd) Rushing (10th)
I would like to start by saying the AFC South is an outright atrocity, so congratulations to the Texans for winning it. Literally all you had to do was be semi-competent and you did that. Good job, good effort.
Head coach Bill O’Brien has endured the quarterback carousel. Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden have all started for the Texans because of injuries/awful quarterbacking, but Hoyer has been decent enough to get the Texans to a winning record. In other words, he’s the best at throwing it somewhere near DeAndre Hopkins (111 receptions, 1,521 yards, 11 TDs), which is the brunt of the Texans offensive game plan.
Houston doesn’t have the best defence in the AFC, that’s Denver, but Southern Texas is also home to the most disruptive player in football today; J.J. Watt. The Texans defensive end is only the second player in NFL history to record three seasons of at least 17 sacks, placing himself along the great Reggie White (He finished with 17.5 to lead the NFL this season). On top of that, Brian Cushing seems to have re-found his form from a couple years ago, and Jadaveon Clowney’s face hasn’t been plastered on milk cartons this year, as the 2014 1st overall pick has begun making plays later in the season. A lot of that might have to do with Watt being double and even triple covered by offensive lines, but credit should be given where credit is due.(UPDATE: Clowney’s been downgraded to Out for today’s game)
Everyone knows J.J. Watt, he’s probably on his way to another Defensive Player of the Year award this season (whether that’s deserved, or on reputation, is another question) but a name a lot of people forget about in Houston is Whitney Mercilus. Besides having one of the best names in football, Mercilus and Watt have combined for the most sacks of any tandem in the NFL since 2013. The combo with the second most sacks in that time frame? Justin Houston and Tamba Hali of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Prediction
Oddly enough, both teams have been without their starting running backs for a majority of the season, yet their strong defences have propelled them to the playoffs. Jamaal Charles tore his ACL in a week 5 loss to the Bears. In relief of Charles though, Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware have been dyno-mite.
Houston’s Arian Foster meanwhile, was lost for the season in infuriating fashion, when he tore his ACL in garbage time of a blowout loss to the Dolphins. Does the running back committee of Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes, Chris Polk and Akeem Hunt strike fear into anyone? Didn’t think so.
The Chiefs may not be the flashiest offensive team on paper, but there is one component of their game which they do really well: not turn the ball over. Kansas City has only given away the ball 15 times this season, second fewest in the NFL, and that could be vital against a team like the Texans, who rely on their defence to get the offence.
If West and Ware can get going against the Houston D, I can’t see any way the Chiefs don’t win. Peters will shut down Hopkins, the “Bulls on Parade” may get to Alex Smith, but not as much as the Chiefs rushers will hit Hoyer. The Texans situation didn’t get any better when Houston lost pro-bowl tackle Duane Brown to a torn quad. All signs are pointing to a field day for the Kansas City pass rush. The Chiefs picks up their first playoff victory since January of ’94, when they were led by… Joe Montana, and defeated… the Houston Oilers. It’s been a while.
Chiefs 23, Texans 13
Pittsburgh Steelers (6) (10-6) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3) (12-4)
If you only get to watch one of the four wild-card games this weekend, this is the one you watch. The Steelers and Bengals are meeting for the third time this year, and these two teams DO NOT like each other.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Offence: Total (3rd) Passing (3rd) Rushing (16th)
Defence: Total (21st) Passing (30th) Rushing (5th)
The Steelers may have just barely squeaked into the playoffs in the final week of the season, but if there’s any AFC team you don’t want to face, it’s these guys. They’re that team, you know, the one that’s “getting hot at the right time”, poised to go on a Super Bowl run. And they’ve got the offence to do it. The lethal connection of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown will have to put the team on their shoulders.
What has Brown done for the Steelers? How’s 136 receptions (t-1st with Julio Jones), 1,834 yards (2nd, 37 yards behind Jones), and 10 touchdowns sound? Brown’s near the top in almost every statistical receiving category and put up over 100 receiving yards in 9 games this season, including 284 against Oakland in Week 9. He also had the best end-zone celebration of the year, and styles his hair like he’s a LEGO man.
Mind you, in both previous match-ups against Cincinnati, Brown was kept under 100 yards. It’s not all about Antonio though, Pittsburgh still has Martavis Bryant who’s able to do some damage, and Markus Wheaton to open up the short passing game. Roethlisberger will be able to get the ball to his guys, he’s just got to make sure they show up, because he will not have a solid running back to take the pressure off. After Le’Veon Bell was lost to a torn ACL (Another One), DeAngelo Williams has been everything Pittsburgh could have asked for in relief. But now he’s out of action with a high ankle sprain. Pittsburgh will have to trot out Fitzgerald Toussaint on Saturday. No, I did not make that name up. He’s from Michigan, and has 18 total carries this season….
Would you want to turn to an unproven tailback with your season on the line? Timmy Smith is really the only example of something like that working out, and that was the flukiest of flukes.
There’s no ‘Steel Curtain’ this year, but one thing the Steelers do have going for them on defence; they finished third in the league with 48 sacks. It’s a scattered 48 however, as no pass rusher has more than Cameron Heyward’s seven. New defensive coordinator Keith Butler’s Bison Blitz formation has fooled offences in 2015, often by bringing up a corner, like William Gay, to rush the quarterback. Apart from Gay, a man who won’t stop dancing for anyone, there shouldn’t be anyone that McCarron should truly fear on the Steelers defence.
Cincinnati Bengals
Offence: Total (15th) Passing (15th) Rushing (13th)
Defence: Total (11th) Passing (20th) Rushing (7th)
For the first few years of his career, Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton was a “red rider BB gun”. That’s been different this year, as the “red rocket rifle” was one of the top passers in the NFL and is ready to take Cincinnati to the next level.
One problem. He’s out of the game with a thumb injury.
This has thrust AJ McCarron into the spotlight, known mostly for being a lucky SOB that got to quarterback dominant Alabama teams and have a smoking hot girlfriend.
I mean look at this guy. Top 10 most punchable face in the NFL.
McCarron’s been alright in relief of Dalton, and that’s all he really needs to be for Cincinnati to win. He’s still got guys like A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert and his 13 touchdowns in 2015. The running back duo of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard have each rushed for over 700 yards, a sporadic 1-2 punch in the sense that when one guy gets going, the other guy gets ice cold. It will be interesting to see how they fare against the strong point of Pittsburgh’s D. The Bengals will need at least 100 yards on the ground if they want to think about heading to New England next weekend.
McCarron’s also got a great defence. Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins each finished with double-digit sack totals this year. Vontaze Burfict, has come back from a possibly career-altering injury. Let’s not forget to mention the secondary, which has gone unnoticed for most of the year, featuring Leon Hall, Dre Kirkpatrick, Adam Jones a.k.a the artist formerly known as Pac-man, and second team All-Pro Safety, Reggie Nelson. Jones was also the only corner in the NFL this year to not allow a pass of more than 25+ yards, and Nelson was tied with Peters for the league lead in interceptions.
Prediction
I’ve flip-flopped on this game more than any of the four that are being played this weekend. For almost the entire 2015 season, I’ve believed a healthy Steelers team is the best of the AFC North. I picked them to beat Cincinnati both times they played one another this year. But this time around, things just don’t add up in their favour. Pittsburgh’s not going to have a running back this weekend, making their entire offence one-dimensional. On the other side of the ball, McCarron has had weeks to prepare for this game, and he’s facing a pass defence which gave up 272 yards through the air per game. The Steelers are ripe for the picking.
For the second time on Saturday, a major playoff drought ends, as Cincinnati earns its first postseason victory since 1991. Marvin Lewis gets playoff win number one in his seventh try. People who believed the Bengals would finally win a playoff game once Dalton wasn’t the quarterback are still “technically right”.
Bengals 27, Steelers 26
Seattle Seahawks (6) (10-6) vs. Minnesota Vikings (3) (11-5)
Seattle comes into this one the heavy favourite, but there’s still a couple outside factors that benefit the Vikings, one the weather. This game will be reminiscent of the Bud Grant-era Vikings teams that would destroy opponents who couldn’t handle the cold. Second, the game-start time. Kick-off is 1:00 PM on Sunday or 10:00 AM in Seattle. The other three games this weekend start in the afternoon for the Pacific time zone, so it’s quite puzzling as to why the NFL would schedule this game for 1:00 PM. Don’t believe what all the prognosticators tell you, this one’s going to be a bit closer than you think.
Seattle Seahawks
Offence: Total (4th) Passing (20th) Rushing (3rd)
Defence: Total (2nd) Passing (2nd) Rushing (1st)
In case you haven’t heard, Russell Wilson is playing like a man possessed coming into the playoffs. Over the second half of the season, Wilson has thrown 24 touchdowns, to just one interception, the best TD:INT ratio over an eight game stretch EVER. And what do you know, they’re just about to add another element to their game. Marshawn Lynch. Lynch hasn’t been his explosive self in 2015, largely due to a rash of injuries which have befell him, greatly reducing his numbers of prior seasons. He’s scheduled to come back against Minnesota after sitting out almost the entire last half with an abdominal injury. WELL, so much for that chunk. Lynch has been declared out, and won’t be joining the Seahawks in Minneapolis. Christine Michael will get the rock for Seattle. It shouldn’t matter too much regardless, as the Seahawks have revamped their offence to centre around Wilson, rather than a power back like Lynch.
Wilson also helped make Doug Baldwin a super hero, as he is now one of the top receivers in the league, catching 11 touchdowns in his last six games. The Stanford grad, and rookie Tyler Lockett, have given Seattle another way to tear opponents apart.
The weak point for the Seahawks is their offensive line which is a little beat down. Russell Okung should be returning, but likely not at 100 percent. Garry Gilliam and Justin Britt are not world-beaters, and will likely struggle having to deal with the pressure of Everson Griffen and Brian Robison. Fortunately for Seattle, their offence has been all about getting the ball out of Wilson’s hands quickly and to their many different weapons, which should set them up nicely. How much the weather plays into their offensive production should be interesting. The Pacific Northwest isn’t used to lots of snow.
Everyone’s talked about this defence ad nauseum for the last four years, because they’re just THAT good. Richard Sherman’s not as dominant as he used to be but still one of the top corners in the league with 14 passes defended. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor have been locking it down at safety. The Seahawks are known for their dominant secondary, but their rushing defence has been even better in 2015. Led by Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, who both had over 100 tackles this year, Seattle is the only team in the league to not allow a 100-yard rusher this year, including the rushing champ they get to face this week.
Minnesota Vikings
Offence: Total (29th) Passing (31st) Rushing (4th)
Defence: Total (13th) Passing (12th) Rushing (17th)
The Vikings offence is all about “All Day”, Adrian Peterson. Minnesota’s running back became only the second player in history to win the NFL’s rushing title over the age of 30, joining the great Curtis Martin as he led the league with 1495 rushing yards in 2015. Of course, Peterson also had his worst day of the season against Seattle, as the Seahawks limited him to just 18 yards on eight carries. So I guess the Vikings will just have to get the passing game going a little bit right? Yeah, good luck with that.
Teddy Bridgewater only threw 14 touchdown passes this year, the fewest by any quarterback that started all 16 games. To be fair, he doesn’t have much to work with. Mike Wallace runs around for a bit, but doesn’t catch any thing. Charles Johnson was supposed to be the #2 option in the Vikings aerial attack. He finished the 2015 season with nine receptions. Kyle Rudolph has gone missing as well, and other than the break-out of Stefon Diggs, Minnesota’s downfield threats are pretty much non-existent. Combine that with supposed frigid temperatures in the St.Paul-Minneapolis area, pressure from Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril and you’ve got yourself a recipe for the toughest game Teddy Bridgewater’s had to play so far in his young career.
Good thing Minnesota’s got a tough defence that won’t lay down for anybody, not even the two-time NFC Champions. Last time these two teams met, Minnesota didn’t have Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr, and Linval Joseph, arguably the three most important pieces of that Vikings Defence. Smith and Barr both played at pro-bowl levels all season long, despite getting snubbed and Joseph has been one of the main reasons why opposing running backs aren’t torching Minnesota each game.
The magic number for the Vikings will be 20. Minnesota is 10-0 when holding opponents under 20 points, and 0-4 when allowing more than 20. If the Vikings can’t hold Seattle under 20 there is no way they win this football game, not with the mismatches the Minnesota offence will have to deal with.
Prediction
The Seahawks previously trounced the Vikings 38-7 at Minnesota earlier this year. A lot of people seem to think Seattle’s got this thing wrapped up before the game’s been played because of their previous matchup.
A lot of people said that about the Steelers going to face the Tim Tebow-led Broncos in 2011.
A lot of people said that when the Patriots were facing the Jets in a re-match in 2010, after beating them 45-3 in the regular season.
A lot of people said the 7-9 Seahawks were toast in 2010 having to take on the 11-5 Saints.
No games are won on paper, that’s why we play them.
Having said all of this, I’m still taking the Seahawks. They’re too strong to get knocked out by a young, inexperienced Vikings team.
Seahawks 20, Vikings 9
Green Bay Packers (5) (10-6) vs. Washington Redskins (4) (9-7)
Did you think the Super Bowl favourite Green Bay Packers we’re going to shred opposing defences this year? If so, I’ve got three words.
You.
Were.
Wrong.
Did anyone, ANYONE, think the Washington Redskins would be a playoff team, and not only that, finish with a record above .500? Didn’t think so.
Yet here we are, with the Packers and Redskins meeting in wild-card weekend. With Washington favoured by 1 point.
Green Bay Packers
Offence: Total (23rd) Passing (25th) Rushing (12th)
Defence: Total (15th) Passing (6th) Rushing (21st)
Anemic is the best way to describe how Green Bay moves when they have the football. Aaron Rodgers has had his worst statistical season since he took over the Packers starting job in 2008, which can be credited to the fact that he has no one to throw to, and no time. Rodgers was sacked 47 times this season, including 13 times in the last two, the fifth most in the NFL.
The four teams that were worse than Green Bay? Cleveland, Tennessee, San Francisco, and Jacksonville. None of them had more than five wins this year. Starting tackle David Bakhtiari has missed some time of late, which could explain the recent surge in the amount of hits on Rodgers. Second team All-Pro guard Josh Sitton can’t block everyone.
Losing Jordy Nelson before the season began didn’t do the Packers any favours, but they are really struggling to do anything through the air. There’s a lack of communication between Rodgers and all of his receivers except Randall Cobb and James “Earl” Jones, and Cobb hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game since week 2. Packers fans should be thanking whatever gods may be that Jones showed up or else Green Bay would be in dire straits. Davante Adams was supposed to be huge for the Packers this year, and he finished the season with one touchdown reception and in the top six in dropped passes.
This is first time since 2010 that the Packers scoring defence is actually better than their offence. Clay Matthews has led the way and he may be assigned to the tall task of handling Washington tight end, Jordan Reed. That job could also go to safety Micah Hyde, who was spectacular last week in erasing Minnesota’s Kyle Rudolph, highlighted by a ridiculous pick, a proud moment for guys named “Micah” everywhere.
Sam Shields has been lights out in coverage for the Packers this year, a lone bright spot for a Green Bay team that’s fallen short of expectations thus far. The problem is Shields is doubtful to play Sunday, as he still needs to pass through concussion protocol. If he can’t go, it’s rookie Damarious Randall drawing the matchup against DeSean Jackson, who’s proven to be no slouch either. Randall is apparently battling a groin injury as well though, the extent of which is unknown. Washington won’t be afraid to test the rookie. (UPDATE: Shields has been downgraded to Out).
Washington Redskins
Offence: Total (17th) Passing (11th) Rushing (20th)
Defence: Total (28th) Passing (25th) Rushing (26th)
WASHINGTON REDSKINS. 2015 NFC EAST CHAMPIONS.
Kirk Cousins just had to decide all willy-nilly that he wanted to become a decent quarterback this season. And so he did just that, finishing the year leading the NFL in completion percentage. Jordan Reed has finally developed into the stud everyone said he would be, creating chaotic mismatches for defences. It’s an understatement to say Reed exploded for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns. DeSean Jackson while not the game-breaker he once was, seemingly hauls in at least one deep bomb each game and is still able to stretch the defence and open up the field for Cousins to throw.
It’s been all about the pass this year in Washington, as the Redskins running game has been lacking to say the least in 2015. Alfred Morris has been quite mediocre, and Matt Jones comes out to play once in a full moon. Neither back rushed for more than 3.8 yards per carry this season, so it’s safe to say Kirk Cousins will be letting it fly more often than not this Sunday.
Ryan Kerrigan has led the way for Washington with nine and a half sacks, and is undoubtedly their best defensive player. The edge rusher will need to get by Green Bay tackle Bryan Bulaga, and put constant pressure on the former MVP. Rodgers hasn’t had a whole lot of time in protection behind a leaky offensive line this season, but when he has, the Packers are clicking.
Outside of Kerrigan, and the great play of Dashon Goldson at safety, Washington’s defence doesn’t seem to be strong enough to take them on a deep playoff run, as they’ve got the worst unit of any playoff team. Their secondary picked up all-around despised cornerback Cary Williams, which should prove how desperate they are in the defensive backfield. To this day, scientists are still trying to find the answer to one of mankind’s greatest mysteries: What is it exactly that Cary Williams does well?
Prediction
I think every single preview I’ve read for this game has said the same thing. The Redskins are on the way up, the Packers are on the way down, so take Washington. What they fail to mention, is that Green Bay is one of the best teams in the league at defending the pass and preventing teams from converting third downs. All Washington does is throw the ball. The Packers offence may be struggling, but Washington’s defence ain’t exactly the ’85 Bears.
Remember people, this is the Washington Redskins. They’ve been the laughing-stock of the league for quite some time, and now everyone’s ready to jump on the Kirk Cousins gravy-train to victory. Pump the brakes a little, folks. Much like the Vikings, Washington is headed in the right direction, but to quote the WORST election attack ad in the history of attack ads, they’re “just not ready.”
Packers 31, Redskins 24
This is the most exciting weekend in football every year. Enjoy it. The Road to Super Bowl 50 officially starts today.
nolancattell 
You must be logged in to post a comment.